FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Spending time in the critical presidential election state of Florida this week, I thought a lot about what Florida and other states did during the 2018 midterm elections, that might give us some hints as to what will happen in those key states in 2020.FRYE Women's Lena Zip Low Fashion Sneaker B071WQMQDN 9.5 B(M) US|Mint Let’s “brunch” on that this week:
“A Florida Frost?” – ECCO Women's Shape 55 Chalet Tall Riding Boot B01NH9NKNW 41 EU / 10-10.5 US|Black Senate seat long held by former Sen. Bill Nelson (D) Florida. Florida is always so close I’d rate it a toss-up, but I say a slight advantage for Trump in 2020.
“Penn Station Stall” – Right now I would rate Pennsylvania as the best and biggest chance for a Democrat pick up in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump won the Keystone State in 2016 with 48.2 percent of the vote to 47.5 percent for Hillary Clinton. Converse Unisex Chuck Taylor All Star Ox Sneaker B01M21X64O 7 Men 9 Women|NavyThe raw margin of victory was just 44,000 votes. Bella Vita Women's Twirl Ballet Flat B00ZICZM80 12 N US|Burgundy Leather. I predict Pennsylvania leans strongly to go back into the Democrat’s fold in 2020, and if native son Joe Biden is the nominee, he’ll carry the state over Trump in November.
“Ohio High-Low” – Ohio and its 18 Electoral College votes went to Donald Trump in 2016. It’s a state that is the best predictor of all fifty states. Win Ohio and you’re president. The 2018 election produced mixed results. Call it the status quo election. Sen.CLARKS Women's Sillian Frey Boot B01BLUIL0I 10 A - Narrow|Navy Synthetic Nubuck Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio easily won reelection. On the other hand, Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) Ohio was elected governor, replacing term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio. Democrats and Republicans both kept their incumbent seats in the U.S. House and so that balance stays the same. I rate Ohio as clear advantage for Republicans in 2020.
“Badgering Voters” – adidas Originals Women's Ultraboost St B0778TYJ4M 5 B(M) US|Crystal White/Grey/Clear Orange. Scott Walker (R) Wisconsin, was defeated in a very close race as he sought a third term. But none of Wisconsin’s U.S. House district flipped, so I say Wisconsin leans to Trump in 2020
“Carolina (North) on My Mind” – North Carolina has become a key toss-up state in past few presidential election cycles, after being a solid red state for decades. But 2018 offered some mixed results. Democrats won the governor’s race beating a Republican incumbent. On the other hand, Skechers Sport Women's Premium-Premix Slip-On Sneaker B000PGY262 6 W US|White/NavyDemocrats and Republicans each held their incumbent U.S. House seats, with one exception. The ninth district seat remains in a toss-up with a special election set for September 2019, which will get huge national press attention and money. Many will view it as a final litmus test on Trump’s viability in North Carolina and nationally in 2020. Right now, I give the GOP a slight advantage to hold North Carolina, but remember Trump only beat Hillary Clinton here by three percentage points.
“Virginia is NOT for All Lovers!” –The sea of “red” hearts in Virginia has indeed turned “blue.” Between 1952 and 2004, Eddie Bauer Women's Cairn Mid B06X3TGWLP 9.5 B(M) US|Butterscotch (Yellow), and in 2018 came within one vote of tying Republicans for control of the House of Delegates, and within one vote of controlling the State Senate. Look for Virginia to stay in the “blue” column in 2020.
“’Auto State’ is Not Automatic” – Heavily involved in the auto industry, Michigan has been a reliable blue-collar Democratic state for decades, but often with a penchant for electing Republican governors. This was the closest margin of victory in any state for Donald Trump as he garnered 47.5 percent of the vote,Devious DAGGER-3060 6 1/4 Solid Brass Heel Back Lace-Up Thigh BT B00IA60SO4 10 B(M) US|Black Stretch PatentVans Herren Authentic Core Classic Sneakers B000K7CG0A 9 B(M) US Women / 7.5 D(M) US Men|Navy to 47.27 percent for Hillary Clinton. The difference was just 10,704 votes out of 4.5 million votes cast. Democrats kept a U.S. Senate seat, picked up the Governor’s mansion and flipped two U.S. House seats. I rate the state as leaning to flip back to the Democratic side in 2020.
“Why All of This Matters” – Aerosoles Women's Half Dozen Wedge Sandal B01681KG12 11 B(M) US|Tan Lizard, North Carolina, Ohio, or Georgia. It’s going to be an uphill fight!.
Who is ahead in your state? Who are people chatting about? Just click the comment button to add your voice to the chorus!
Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is the Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations that are providing coverage of the 2020 presidential campaign in West Virginia, its five neighboring states of Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland and Pennsylvania, and most of the Washington, D.C. media market.
© 2019, Mark Curtis Media, LLC
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